Carbon Evidence

Evidence map

Aviation: what the evidence base looks like

10 publications, 0 of them trials and 0 syntheses. This page describes the shape of that literature rather than summarising its conclusions.

Updated 3 min read 10 citations

What the evidence on aviation is made of Of 10 publications on this topic, the breakdown by study type: 10 other. 10other (10)
10 publications, by study type. Volume is not strength — the same count can be a settled question or a pile of commentary, and which one it is depends almost entirely on this breakdown. Harvested from PubMed and Crossref; publication type as recorded by the source.

What this literature is made of

A reasonable volume of literature, but weighted towards reviews and observational work rather than trials. That is enough to describe a phenomenon and rarely enough to establish that an intervention works.

The distinction that matters most is between synthesis and primary research. A meta-analysis pools trials and is the closest thing to a settled answer a field produces. A narrative review is one group's reading of the same material and can be selective without being dishonest. Counting them together, which most citation counts do, obscures exactly the thing you want to know.

When the aviation literature was published Publication years for the 10 papers on this topic, grouped into bands from before 2015 through to 2023 onwards. Before 20154 papers2023 onwards4 papers2015-20192 papers
Still active. The most recent paper here is from 2026, so this is a field where an answer written today may not hold for long. Publication years as recorded by PubMed and Crossref.

How this page is built

Everything above is computed from the citations this site harvested from PubMed and Crossref, not written by hand. When the weekly harvest finds a new paper on this topic, these counts change and the characterisation changes with them. That is the point: a hand-written claim about how strong an evidence base is starts decaying the day it is written.

Publication type is taken as the source records it. That is imperfect — journals label inconsistently, and a paper indexed as a "review" may be a systematic one — so treat the bands as approximate. They are accurate enough to distinguish a trial literature from a commentary literature, which is the distinction that matters.

The strongest work on this topic

Ordered by study design first, then recency. The full set is listed in the references below.

  1. Radiative forcing caused by rocket engine emissions — Ross M, Sheaffer P, 2014, journal article
  2. Simulated radiative forcing from contrails and contrail cirrus — Chen C, Gettelman A, 2013, journal article
  3. Global Impact of Aviation Contrails — Pleter O, Constantinescu C, 2026, journal article
  4. Quantification of the radiative forcing of contrails embedded in cirrus clouds — Seelig T, Wolf K, Bellouin N et al., 2025, journal article
  5. The ozone radiative forcing of nitrogen oxide emissions from aviation can be estimated using a probabilistic approach — Rao P, Dwight R, Singh D et al., 2024, journal article
  6. An inconsistency in aviation emissions between CMIP5 and CMIP6 and the implications for short-lived species and their radiative forcing — Thor R, Mertens M, Matthes S et al., 2023, journal article
  7. Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing from contrails and aerosols — Chen C, Gettelman A, 2016, journal article
  8. Effective Radiative Forcing – a New Approach to Assessing the Impact of Aviation on the Atmosphere — Hanus D, Hajzler O, Buldakova N, 2015, journal article
  9. Radiative Forcing of Quadrupling CO2 — Zhang M, Huang Y, 2014, journal article
  10. Effects of Three-Dimensional Photon Transport on the Radiative Forcing of Realistic Contrails — Forster L, Emde C, Mayer B et al., 2012, journal article
How much research is there on aviation?
10 publications are indexed here, of which 0 are trials and 0 are syntheses.
Does more research mean a stronger conclusion?
No. Composition matters more than volume — five randomised trials support a claim far better than fifty commentaries, and citation counts do not distinguish between them.
How current is this?
The most recent paper indexed here is from 2026. The set is refreshed weekly from PubMed and Crossref.
Why does this page not tell me the answer?
Because summarising a literature into a conclusion requires reading it, and doing that automatically is how confident nonsense gets published. This page tells you how much weight a conclusion could bear; the articles on this site do the interpreting.

References

Every citation below links to the original peer-reviewed record on PubMed or via DOI. Nothing here is a substitute for medical advice.

  1. Radiative forcing caused by rocket engine emissions Ross M, Sheaffer P · Earth's Future · 2014 · Journal article DOI
  2. Simulated radiative forcing from contrails and contrail cirrus Chen C, Gettelman A · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · 2013 · Journal article DOI
  3. Global Impact of Aviation Contrails Pleter O, Constantinescu C · Aerospace · 2026 · Journal article DOI
  4. Quantification of the radiative forcing of contrails embedded in cirrus clouds Seelig T, Wolf K, Bellouin N, et al. · Nature Communications · 2025 · Journal article DOI
  5. The ozone radiative forcing of nitrogen oxide emissions from aviation can be estimated using a probabilistic approach Rao P, Dwight R, Singh D, et al. · Communications Earth & Environment · 2024 · Journal article DOI
  6. An inconsistency in aviation emissions between CMIP5 and CMIP6 and the implications for short-lived species and their radiative forcing Thor R, Mertens M, Matthes S, et al. · Geoscientific Model Development · 2023 · Journal article DOI
  7. Simulated 2050 aviation radiative forcing from contrails and aerosols Chen C, Gettelman A · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics · 2016 · Journal article DOI
  8. Effective Radiative Forcing – a New Approach to Assessing the Impact of Aviation on the Atmosphere Hanus D, Hajzler O, Buldakova N · MAD - Magazine of Aviation Development · 2015 · Journal article DOI
  9. Radiative Forcing of Quadrupling CO2 Zhang M, Huang Y · Journal of Climate · 2014 · Journal article DOI
  10. Effects of Three-Dimensional Photon Transport on the Radiative Forcing of Realistic Contrails Forster L, Emde C, Mayer B, et al. · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · 2012 · Journal article DOI